Optimists will seize on today’s news that the unemployment rate slipped last month for the first time in more than a year. Good news, to be sure, if only because it breaks the formerly nonstop rise in the monthly jobless rate. But the modest decline to a 9.4% unemployment rate in July from 9.5% masks the ongoing job destruction that roars beneath this otherwise encouraging exterior.
Nonfarm payrolls were lighter by a still hefty 247,000 last month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. That’s reassuring only by the dire standard of the far deeper monthly losses between September 2008 and June 2009. Relatively speaking, the labor market appears to be healing, or bleeding less profusely, to be precise. But equating this with good news is a bit like discovering that your boat has only nine leaking holes instead of 12. Your still taking on water, albeit at a slower rate, but the end result will be the same unless the trend changes: the boat sinks.
Indeed, virtually every corner of the labor market was taking on water last month, including the major sectors of goods producing industries (which lost 128,000 positions in July) and the all-important services sector (which shed 119,000 jobs last month). Perhaps we should keep the buckets handy for a bit longer.