The update on new fillings for unemployment benefits is cheery once again, at least in trend if not absolute numbers. Initial jobless claims dipped to 530,000 last week, the lowest since mid-July and sharply below the peak for this cycle—674,000 for the week through March 28, 2009.
The downward trend suggests that the recession is over, but we’re still waiting for some corroborating support, including continuing claims, which remain elevated. The implication: businesses are laying off fewer workers (initial claims) but those who are already receiving jobless benefits aren’t finding work (continuing claims).