If you’re looking for a measure of the challenge that awaits, new orders for durable goods are a useful place to start.
Durable goods are arguably at the front line of economic activity. Purchasing big-ticket items, like cars and aircraft, take some degree of confidence in the near-term economic outlook as well as one’s personal (or corporate) financial condition. In times of economic distress, delaying such purchases is tempting. You can always buy a car next month.