Are the days of the jobless recovery numbered? Yes, according to the latest survey that was released today.
The Capital Spectator has obtained a copy of the full report. Among the highlights:
* NABE-member economists predict a moderately higher pace of economic growth for this year’s fourth quarter compared to the outlook made in October. According to the report, “The fourth quarter of 2009 is now slated for a 3.0 percent pace of real GDP growth and 2010 is predicted to experience a gain of 3.2 percent over its four quarters. For the two years combined, growth is expected to be one-half of a percentage point above the forecast made in October. Economic growth is projected to slightly exceed its trend pace—which NABE panelists estimate at 2.7 percent—over the next five quarters.”
* The household sector is still expected to post sluggish results for the near term. “Past wealth losses, and initially stagnant employment conditions,” the NABE advises, “are predicted to result in lackluster consumer spending gains over the coming year.”
* Meanwhile, the recovery “will not remain jobless for long,” the report forecasts. “With more than 7.3 million jobs lost since December 2007, NABE panelists believe the end of net employment losses is near, with modest declines during the fourth quarter followed by a ‘bottom’ in the first quarter of 2010 and gains thereafter.”
Daily Archives: November 23, 2009
SOVERIGN RISK, REFLATION & THE NEW NORMAL
Sovereign risk doesn’t usually dominate the headlines on any given day, but in the wake of last year’s financial cataclysm there’s a sharper focus on the fallout that flows from governments that mismanage their debt and economy.
The elephant in the room, of course, is the U.S. The discussion of America’s fiscal condition has heated up in recent history for obvious reasons, starting with ballooning debt. As the overseer of the world’s reserve currency, which happens to reside in the world’s largest economy, the U.S. enjoys certain advantages that other nations can only dream of. That includes the ability to harbor mountains of red ink.