A month ago we discussed why the dearth of loans is especially troublesome at this point in the economic cycle. The news that Fed Chairman talked today with Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid in an effort to change the state of frozen lending isn’t exactly encouraging, even though that’s exactly the goal. “I believe more pressure needs to be applied to banks to lend money to small businesses and keep more Americans in their homes,” said Reid said after his confab with the Fed head. You can lead a horse to water, but can you beat him over the head to make him drink? Meanwhile, at the other end of Pennsylvania Ave., the White House is trying to put a lid on big banks assuming “reckless risks.” So why isn’t any one smiling yet?

There are two ways to interpret this morning’s disappointing news on jobless claims for last week. One is that the jig is up and the economy’s set for a fresh round of trouble. The other is newly minted confirmation that the post-recession recovery this time really is going to arrive in fits and starts, take longer than usual, and deliver subpar performance for an unusually long time.
We’re still in the latter camp, as we have been for some time, although critics can rightly ask: What’s the difference in these two viewpoints? At the moment, precious little. Until and if we receive more encouraging news on the labor market, and soon, the jig may in fact be up. But not yet, or at least we don’t think so.

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