The Conference Board yesterday reported that its closely watched index of leading economic indicators (LEI) was up 1.1% in December. The LEI for the U.S. “increased sharply in December, and has risen steadily for nine consecutive months,” Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board, said in an accompanying press release.
Daily Archives: January 22, 2010
MEASURING THE EMPLOYMENT TREND
Economist Bill Conerly brings some much-needed clarity to the task of analyzing the trend in the U.S. labor market. Yes, there’s still trouble ahead, but let’s at least be sensible when assessing the decade just passed.
TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING?
BCA Research yesterday made the case for seeing emerging market stocks as “fully priced” on an earnings basis. Or, if you prefer, they’re “no longer cheap.”
It doesn’t help that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index soared last year to the upper realms of bull market records, rising nearly 80% in 2009. A chart in the January issue of The Beta Investment Report, published earlier this month, made this point in a way that only graphics can:
Is any of this related to the recent weakness in emerging market equities and related funds, such as iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)? Bloomberg News today advises that emerging-market stocks are “heading for their steepest weekly decline since October, as commodity prices dropped amid concern higher interest rates in China and proposed U.S. banking reforms will slow economic recovery.”
