● Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
By Dan Gardner
Review via New York Times Book Review
What does the future hold? To answer that question, human beings have looked to stars and to dreams; to cards, dice and the Delphic oracle; to animal entrails, Alan Greenspan, mathematical models, the palms of our hands. As the number and variety of these soothsaying techniques suggest, we have a deep, probably intrinsic desire to know the future. Unfortunately for us, the future is deeply, intrinsically unknowable. This is the problem Dan Gardner tackles in “Future Babble.”
Daily Archives: March 25, 2011
Q4 GDP Growth Revised Up To 3.1% Pace
The U.S. economy grew at a 3.1% real annual rate in last year’s fourth-quarter, the government reports in its third and final estimate for Q4 GDP. That’s up from the previously reported 2.8% pace. For all of last year, the economy expanded by 2.9%.
Strategic Briefing | 3.25.2011 | Inflation & Oil Prices
Another year of living dangerously
The Economist | Mar 24
Even as higher oil prices and hobbled Japanese production reduce growth they add to mounting inflation risks (Britain is now fretting over inflation of 4.4%). But most rich-world economies have ample economic slack, and in several countries fiscal tightening will tug at recovery. Britain’s coalition government has reaffirmed its commitment to austerity with this week’s budget (see article), and America has begun to cut spending. Both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve should resist the temptation to tighten soon. The European Central Bank seems intent on raising interest rates next month. That would be a mistake. In the euro zone underlying inflation and wage growth are both subdued and inflation expectations are under control. By raising rates the ECB would strengthen the euro and frustrate the efforts of countries like Greece, Ireland and—the next in line for bailing out—Portugal to grow their way out of their debts. There is only so much economic policymakers can do about crises that spring from war or nature. In this case, the priority should be not making matters worse.