Economist Bob Dieli of NoSpinForecast.com writes in to point out that the chart posted earlier today (reproduced below) that compares real (inflation-adjusted) wages with personal consumption expenditures was dramatically skewed in late-2008 and 2009 by the brief but potent round of deflation that hit the U.S. economy.
Daily Archives: March 31, 2011
A Technical Detail On Calculating Real Wages
In an earlier post today, I published a chart that compares real (inflation-adjusted) personal consumption expenditures with real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers. The goal, as explained in detail in Joseph Ellis’ book Ahead of the Curve
Jobless Claims Fall By 6k
For the third week in a row, and for only the sixth time since the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, new weekly filings for jobless benefits are under the 400,000 mark on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reports. Last week, initial claims slipped by 6,000 to 388,000. The four-week moving average of claims remains well under 400k as well, continuing a trend that’s been in place for over a month.
There’s Always A New Recession Lurking
Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and newly minted Presidential candidate thinks that a new recession is coming. He’s right, of course. There’s always a new recession coming. There have been 33 economic contractions in the U.S. since the mid-1800s, according to NBER, and it’s a safe bet that number 34 is waiting in the wings. As Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, recently remarked: “I devoutly hope our next downturn won’t come for quite some time, but it surely will come eventually.”