Daily Archives: August 10, 2011

How’s That Commodities-Based Inflation Forecast Looking These Days?

Funny how you don’t hear much these days about inflation worries based on rising commodities prices. Mysterious? Well, not really. Commodities prices are down recently–sharply. The cash price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) is under $80 a barrel, as I write—off from nearly $115 in late-May. A number of other key commodities have tumbled recently as well. Nothing like a big round of selling to change perceptions. That’s the point–commodities prices bounce around a lot, and so we shoud be cautious when it comes to making big decisions based on the price du jour.

Continue reading

Monetary Lessons Learned (And Ignored)

Has the Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus since 2008 been a failure? Many observers of the economic scene think so, and the evidence, they argue, is overwhelming. The U.S. economy, after all, remains plagued with sluggish growth, high unemployment and dim prospects for something more anytime soon. On its face, this looks like damning evidence. But this is a misreading of what monetary policy has accomplished, or more precisely: what it’s kept from happening.

Continue reading