I’m taking the rest of the week off (my boss is a generous soul) and so the usual fun may suffer. But I’ll be back in the saddle at the world headquarters of The Capital Spectator come Monday morning.

The debate about whether the U.S. economy is destined for a new recession remains unsettled, thanks to a mixed bag of numbers in the latest round of updates. The strongest case for thinking positively resides, ironically, in the labor market. Initial jobless claims, a key leading indicator, is moving in the right direction again, albeit from elevated levels. As I noted last week, the annual percentage decline in the raw data isn’t normally associated with broad economic contraction, and that’s a good thing. But confidence hangs on a thread these days and so tomorrow’s update will be closely watched. One bad number and the crowd may run for cover once more.

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