The risk of a new recession is higher, but it’s not obvious that it’s at the tipping point. A number of traditional indicators that have an encouraging history of dispensing early warning signs are still in the growth column, if only slightly. But there’s also a set of deteriorating numbers that counteract the positives, as today’s update on new jobless claims reminds. No wonder that some analysts say there’s a 50/50 chance of a downturn.