Forecasting risk premiums is a dirty business, but it’s necessary unless you’re truly a buy-and-hold investor with a very long time horizon. How many individuals fit into that category? Very few is probably a good estimate. For the rest of us, developing some intuition about expected risk premiums—the returns that are left after subtracting a risk-free rate a la Treasury bills—is useful, perhaps essential. It can be dangerous as well, but that’s the nature of toiling in risk.