There’s still not a whole heck of a lot going on with jobless claims. That’s good news to a degree since it suggests that the recession risk, while elevated, isn’t rising. But it’s also bad news because it’s a sign too that the labor market isn’t likely to break out of its slump with a burst of strong job growth any time soon. This could on for a while and it probably will.
Daily Archives: October 13, 2011
Living On A Prayer
If you’re inclined to sit on the fence these days in the delicate art of anticipating the next phase of the business cycle, you’ll get no argument from the latest update on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a monster index of indexes that encompasses 85 measures of U.S. economic activity. This benchmark has weakened this year but it’s still not flashing a formal prediction of economic contraction. But it’s a precarious existence on this side of the line.
A Mixed Bag For Recession Risk
A new recession may be coming. Maybe it’s already here. Then again, maybe not. Calling major turns in the business cycle in real time is perhaps the most coveted of skills in all of economics. It’s also one of the most elusive gifts among self-proclaimed seers. That doesn’t stop anyone from trying, including this recent warning that dark days ahead are a virtual certainty. The risk of trouble certainly looks higher to most observers, and it’s not just in the U.S. Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser alerts us that the global economy “is close to stall speed.” Perhaps, although it’s still not obvious that the trend in the U.S. has definitively rolled over. For some perspective, let’s review some of the latest indicators.