This morning’s updates on consumer inflation and housing construction for September offer some additional support for my previous post on thinking that September won’t be seen as the start of a new recession. The quick summary: housing starts rose 15% last month, the fastest pace since January; consumer inflation slowed, but only marginally, suggesting that disinflation/deflationary forces related to economic contraction remain minimal.
Daily Archives: October 19, 2011
Macroeconomic Advisers: US GDP Rose 0.4% In August
It’s still too early to dismiss the threat of a new recession, but if there’s macro trouble ahead it’s not obvious in the big picture for August. Macroeconomic Advisers released its latest monthly estimate of U.S. GDP to the public yesterday and reports that the economy expanded 0.4% in August. That’s down from July’s 0.9% pace, and so the question is whether September’s numbers will reflect a further slowing in the broad trend? Answering that question still requires guesswork since all of September’s numbers haven’t been released yet. (The official government GDP report is calculated quarterly and the first Q3 estimate is scheduled for release on Oct. 27.)