Is the U.S. economy headed for a new recession? The risk is clearly elevated these days, in part because the euro crisis rolls on. The sluggish growth rate in the U.S. isn’t helping either. But with ongoing job growth, albeit at a slow rate, it’s not yet clear that we’ve reached a tipping point. Given all the mixed signals, however, forecasting is unusually tough at the moment. It’s never easy, of course, but it’s always necessary just the same. But how to proceed? The possibilities are endless, but one useful way to begin is with so-called autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA). It sounds rather intimidating, but the basic calculation is straightforward and it’s easily performed in a spreadsheet, which helps explain why ARIMA models are so popular in econometrics. A more compelling reason for this technique’s widespread use: a number of studies report that ARIMA models have a history of making relatively accurate forecasts compared with the more sophisticated competition.
Daily Archives: November 8, 2011
Looking For Bubbles
Bubble talk is a hardy perennial. The latest installment comes in a recent column by Jason Zweig, who provocatively inquires: “Can you spot a bubble?”