There’s (relatively) good news and (more of the same) bad news in today’s employment report. First the good news, such as it is. Private-sector job creation continues to chug along at a mediocre pace. Last month witnessed a net gain of 104,000 for private nonfarm payrolls, the Labor Department reports. That’s nothing to get excited about, but it’s obviously better than a loss and so it offers yet another bit of statistical evidence for thinking that the economy isn’t poised to slip into a new recession. There’s also encouraging news in the latest batch of revisions to previous payroll reports. In particular, September’s initial estimate of a 137,000 net rise in private payrolls has been substantially revised higher to 191,000. Even August’s originally dismal rise has been revised higher to a slightly less dismal gain of 42,000 vs. the earlier 30,000 advance.
Daily Archives: November 4, 2011
One Small Cut In Interest Rates, One Giant Step For Macro Perspective
The newly installed head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, broke with his predecessor and cut the benchmark interest rate to 1.25% from 1.5%. In one fell swoop Jean-Claude Trichet’s misguided austerity policy has evaporated. And not a moment too soon, given the signs of rising recession risk for the Continent. But there’s more to the story than just another rate cut.
Analyzing Obama’s Economic/Political Troubles
Nate Silver, a new breed of statistically oriented political analysts, boils down President’s Obama’s macro baggage in an article for this weekend’s edition of The New York Times Magazine. Silver’s impressive record in forecasting elections puts him on the short list of must-reads in political calculus circles these days and his latest foray into the dark art of looking ahead doesn’t disappoint for intriguing evaluations of the national political mindset. Think politics in a Moneyball