Yesterday I profiled the trend for a broad mix of economic and market indicators and reasoned that the case for expecting a new recession was still weak. Today’s weekly update on initial jobless claims supports that view: new claims dropped a hefty 26,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 350,000—a new four-year low. Taken at face value, this looks like extraordinary news. The reality, however, may be far less encouraging. Last week’s decline is of questionable relevance because of a rather large seasonal adjustment that’s built into the calculation due to routine July shutdowns of auto plants for retooling.