Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.5% last month, the Census Bureau reports. Economists had generally predicted an increase for the month. In contrast, the revised numbers now show that June’s retreat was the third monthly loss in a row—the first trio of consecutive decreases since 2008. Not an encouraging sign, but not a smoking gun either.
Daily Archives: July 16, 2012
Windows Of Opportunity In Business Cycle Analysis
Amid all the recession talk of late, there’s a lot of chatter about the value of predicting these events. One line of reasoning advises that unless you’re capable of anticipating recessions with a fair amount of lead time, the situation is hopeless. Actually, no—reality is far more nuanced than this one-dimensional claim lets on. Different recessions dispatch different degrees of pain on different time schedules. As a result, there can be value in simply recognizing when recessions begin, as early as possible.