The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to post a modest increase to 0.03 in the January update, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. That’s up slightly from CFNAI’s -0.13 three-month average for December. A value below -0.70 indicates an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, the Chicago Fed advises. The January report is scheduled for release on Monday, February 25 at 08:30 am eastern.
Daily Archives: February 22, 2013
January Economic Updates Continue To Trend Positive
With this week’s January updates on consumer inflation and residential building permits, three more indicators fall into place for last month’s estimates of The Capital Spectator Economic Trend & Momentum indices (CS-ETI and CS-EMI, respectively). In all three cases, the additions land on the side of growth, providing more statistical support for assuming that January 2013 is likely to remain recession-free in the month’s final edit for NBER’s macro history book.