The ISM Manufacturing Index is projected to post a marginal rise to 50.9 in tomorrow’s January update , based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. That’s modestly above the neutral 50 reading and roughly in line with three consensus forecasts.
Monthly Archives: January 2013
US Nonfarm Private Payrolls: Jan 2013 Preview
A monthly increase of 176,000 for private nonfarm payrolls in January is expected in tomorrow’s update from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. That’s slightly higher than December’s gain, but is moderately below a pair of consensus forecasts.
Personal Income Surges In December On “Special Payments”
Disposable personal income (DPI) in December surged by 2.7% compared with November’s level, although the gain “was boosted by accelerated and special dividend payments to persons and by accelerated bonus payments and other irregular pay in private wages and salaries in anticipation of changes in individual income tax rates,” the government advises. By contrast, personal consumption expenditures increased a modest 0.2% last month, or about half the rate in November.
Personal Spending: December 2012 Preview
Personal consumption spending in December is expected to rise 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis in nominal terms, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast.That compares with a 0.4% gain in the previous report. The average projection for December is roughly in line with several consensus forecasts based on surveys of economists.
Personal Income: December 2012 Preview
Personal income in December is expected to rise 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis in nominal terms, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast.That compares with a 0.6% gain in the previous report. The average projection for December is substantially lower than the predictions in three consensus forecasts via surveys of economists.
Q4 GDP Delivers A Big Downside Surprise
The US economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter of 2012, the government reports. That’s a big surprise for many analysts, including yours truly. The 0.1% decline in GDP in the final three months of last year is the first negative quarterly comparison since the Great Recession ended in mid-2009.
ADP: January Payrolls Climb The Most In 11 Months
Private payrolls increased by 192,000 in January, according to this morning’s ADP Employment Report. That’s a bit stronger than December’s 185,000 gain and it’s the best monthly pop in nearly a year. Today’s release tells us that jobs creation remains at a stable, if not slightly better pace relative to the trend in recent months. In turn, that sets us up for thinking positively about Friday’s January payrolls report from the Labor Department. Meanwhile, it seems that the economy’s capacity for moderate growth appears to be intact in the new year, at least as far as jobs are concerned via ADP’s analysis.
Asset Allocation & Rebalancing: (Still) Competitive Together
Passive asset allocation will never win any awards or front-page profiles, but it’s a competitive strategy that quietly and consistently delivers average to above-average performance relative to a broad spectrum of multi-asset class funds. That’s been the message through the years, as noted in the periodic updates on this front (see last October’s review of the numbers, for instance). Has anything changed three months later? Not really. Owning a wide selection of the major asset classes continues to give the majority of higher-priced active strategies a run for their money.
Durable Goods Orders Post A Surprisingly Strong December Gain
Durable goods orders increased by a surprisingly strong 4.6% in December, closing out the year with the highest monthly gain since September. The increase was nearly three times above the consensus forecast of 1.6%, based on Econoday’s estimates. Much of the gain was due to a sharp rise in aircraft orders, a volatile component that often trips up many short-term predictions for this series. Excluding transportation, new orders for durable goods still advanced, but by a considerably lesser 1.3% pace. Business investment (capital goods orders less defense and aircraft), by contrast, increased a tepid 0.2%, which suggests that corporate America’s appetite for laying out large sums of money for plant and equipment remains sluggish.
Book Bits | 1.26.13
● After the Music Stopped: The Financial Crisis, the Response, and the Work Ahead
By Alan Blinder
Interview with author via The New York Times
Q: You write, “Our best hope is to minimize the consequences when bubbles go splat — and they inevitably will.” How much confidence do you have that when the next bubble goes splat, we will be ready, willing and able to contain the damage?
A: Less than I wish I had. But I’m at least hopeful that some of the lessons we’ve learned, and some of the actions we’ve taken, will make the next bubble less damaging than the last ones. For example, we now understand better the dangers that lurk in high leverage, overly complex financial instruments, and lax (or nonexistent) regulation.
