Business cycle risk remains low, according to the implied estimate of economic conditions based on an index of four key markets. The Capital Spectator’s Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed yesterday (March 21) at 12.8%–well above the danger zone of 0% and within the 10%-to-15% range that’s prevailed so far this year. When MMRI falls under 0%, recession risk is elevated. Readings above 0% equate with economic growth.
Daily Archives: March 22, 2013
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: Feb 2013 Preview
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decline modestly to +0.12 in the February update, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. That compares with CFNAI’s +0.30 three-month average for January. A value below -0.70 indicates an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. The February report is scheduled for release on Monday, March 25.