Jobless claims increased last week, dashing hopes that we’d see a new five-year low in the weekly number in today’s report. New filings for unemployment benefits in the US rose 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 357,000—the highest since mid-February. Is this a sign that the labor market is poised for a slowdown? Yes, if new claims continue to trend higher. For now, it’s best to reserve judgment and assume that the recent improvement in this leading indicator–i.e., falling levels–is intact. We’re still a long way from an ominous signal on this front and history suggests that it’s short-sighted to think otherwise until the data tell us there’s trouble ahead in a clear and unambiguous way.
Daily Archives: March 28, 2013
Asset Allocation & Rebalancing Review | 28 March 2013
US stocks and US REITs, along with foreign REITs/real estate, have climbed the most this year as the first quarter winds down. By contrast, foreign government bonds in developed markets, emerging market stocks, and foreign corporate bonds are the main laggards. This horse race is defined by relative changes in an equally weighted ETF-based portfolio of all the major asset classes (excluding cash) that’s created at last year’s close and left to wander at Mr. Market’s whim.