US economic conditions remain relatively stable after a sharp but so far brief deterioration in June, according to a markets-based profile of the macro trend. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at 12.6% on Friday, August 2—a level that suggests that business cycle risk remains low. The latest 12.6% value is well above the danger zone of 0%. If MMRI falls under 0%, that would be a sign that recession risk is elevated. By comparison, readings above 0% imply economic growth. (Note that MMRI is now calculated as the daily median change of four key market indicators. A brief review of this adjustment is discussed below).
Daily Archives: August 5, 2013
Q3:2013 US GDP Nowcast | 8.05.2013
Third-quarter US GDP is expected to increase 1.9% (real seasonally adjusted annual rate), according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric nowcast. This is the initial estimate that uses limited Q3 data and so the projection is a preliminary review that will be revised several times as new economic data is published. The final nowcast will be published shortly before the official Q3 GDP report, which will arrive on October 30, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the first of three estimates.