The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to remain unchanged at -0.26 in tomorrow’s update for July, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. Values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Based on today’s estimate, CFNAI’s three-month average is projected to remain at a level that’s historically associated with economic expansion, albeit at a below-trend rate, in the July report, which is scheduled for release on Tuesday, August 20.
Daily Archives: August 19, 2013
US Economic Profile | 8.19.13
Business cycle risk remains low, according to the July update of the Economic Trend (ETI) and Momentum indexes (EMI). Both benchmarks, which measure the broad trend in the economy via 14 economic and financial indicators, continue to post values that are well above their respective danger zones. That’s a strong signal for anticipating that the NBER will not declare July as the start of a new recession, or so the latest numbers suggest.