Daily Archives: Oct 3, 2019 at 07:13 am EST

Trade-War Risk Continues To Rise, Threatening US Economy

At what point does economic resilience give way to political reality? No one’s really sure, but the Trump administration continues to press its trade-war policy and the macro blowback continues to mount. Let’s be clear: the United States economy continues to expand at a moderate pace and the risk of recession remains low for the immediate future. But investors are waking up to the fact that the White House’s policy on trade, if it continues, will probably be a critical catalyst that triggers the country’s first recession in a decade.

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Macro Briefing | 3 October 2019

US set to impose tariffs on European goods after WTO ruling: WSJ
Trade worries weigh on equities: Reuters
N. Korea says it tested a new submarine-based ballistic missile: CNBC
Does the US-China trade war threaten US manufacturing jobs? Axios
PMI survey data confirms Eurozone economy virtually stagnant in Sep: IHS Markit
Germany’s economy contracted in Sep, PMI survey data shows: IHS Markit
US job growth in Sep (via ADP data) slows to 8-year low for 1-year change: