US troops start Syrian withdrawal after Trump’s call with Erdogan: NY Times
China narrows scope for upcoming trade talks with US: MW
Second whistleblower raises impeachment risk for Trump: AP
Republicans defend Trump as Ukraine crisis deepens: Politico
Esther George, voting member of Fed, says no need for a rate cut: Fox
United Auto Workers: GM talks ‘have taken a turn for the worse’: CNBC
US payrolls rose modestly in Sep as jobless rate falls to 50-year low: CNBC
German industrial orders fell in Aug, marking another recession warning: Reuters
Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast fell to 3-year low last week:

● Non-Consensus Investing: Being Right When Everyone Else Is Wrong
By Rupal J. Bhansali
Summary via publisher (Columbia U. Press)
At a time when many proclaim the death of active investing, Rupal J. Bhansali, global contrarian, makes a clarion call for its renaissance. Non-consensus thinking has resulted in breakthrough successes in science, sports, and Silicon Valley. Bhansali shows how to apply it to the world of investing to improve one’s odds of achieving above-average returns with below-average risks. Her upside-down investment approach focuses on avoiding losers instead of picking the winners, asking the right questions instead of knowing the right answers, and scoring upset victories to achieve the greatest bang for one’s research buck.

Continue reading →

Private payrolls in the US increased 114,000 in September, slightly below an upwardly revised gain of 122,000 in the previous month, the Labor Department reports. The latest round of hiring is strong enough to minimize fears that a recession is imminent, but still weak enough to raise questions about where the economy’s headed in the fourth quarter.

Continue reading →

It’s the number-one economic question these days, but the answer will remain elusive for several weeks at least, perhaps several months. What we do know is that output has slowed recently and appears to be dipping further. Determining when, exactly, the economy begins to contract can only be known with certainty in hindsight. For now, it’s clear that the risk of a new downturn has increased, but the slow-growth scenario remains the likely path until further notice. What might push the trend over to the dark side? Let’s consider a short list of indicators for perspective.

Continue reading →

Moderately stronger job growth expected for today’s Sep payrolls data: Reuters
Fed Vice Chairman Clarida: labor market is “very healthy”: Reuters
Federal Reserve under growing pressure for another rate cut: Bloomberg
Global growth slowed in Sep, close to stagnation, via PMI data: IHS Markit
Factory orders in US fell slightly in August: Reuters
US jobless claims rise but continue to reflect low pace of layoffs: MW
Job cuts in US fell 22% in September vs. previous month: CG&C
US Services PMI reflects virtually stagnant business activity in Sep: IHS Markit
ISM’s US services sector weakened in Sep, falling to 3-year low: ISM

At what point does economic resilience give way to political reality? No one’s really sure, but the Trump administration continues to press its trade-war policy and the macro blowback continues to mount. Let’s be clear: the United States economy continues to expand at a moderate pace and the risk of recession remains low for the immediate future. But investors are waking up to the fact that the White House’s policy on trade, if it continues, will probably be a critical catalyst that triggers the country’s first recession in a decade.

Continue reading →

US set to impose tariffs on European goods after WTO ruling: WSJ
Trade worries weigh on equities: Reuters
N. Korea says it tested a new submarine-based ballistic missile: CNBC
Does the US-China trade war threaten US manufacturing jobs? Axios
PMI survey data confirms Eurozone economy virtually stagnant in Sep: IHS Markit
Germany’s economy contracted in Sep, PMI survey data shows: IHS Markit
US job growth in Sep (via ADP data) slows to 8-year low for 1-year change:

The Global Market Index’s expected risk premium ticked higher in September, reaching an annualized 4.7%, up slightly from last month’s estimate. Compared with a year earlier, however, the projected long-term risk premia for GMI has slipped from a 5.0% estimate at this point in 2018 (see table below). GMI is an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash). The forecast for this passive benchmark represents the ex ante premium over the expected “risk-free” rate for the long term.

Continue reading →

When does slowing US economic growth trigger a recession? Bloomberg
Today’s ADP employment report will be widely read after weak mfg data: CNBC
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model trims US Q3 growth estimate to 1.8%: Atlanta Fed
Global mfg activity continued to slide in September: IHS Markit
World Trade Organization lowers forecast for trade growth: WTO
US construction spending continued to decline in Aug in annual terms: MW
US Mfg PMI: output grew at a slightly faster but still sluggish rate in Sep: IHS Markit
US ISM Mfg Index fell deeper into contractionary terrain in Sep: CNBC

Foreign stocks in developed markets rebounded in September, posting the strongest performance for the major asset classes last month. The gain was coupled with a sharp loss for bonds in foreign developed markets—September’s deepest setback.

Continue reading →