After weeks of falling, broadly defined commodities rallied sharply last week (through April 3) and posted the biggest gain for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. The first gain in six weeks for raw materials overall may be fleeting, but for the moment the rear-view mirror for this corner of markets is looking up.

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US faces a rough week ahead for battling coronavirus: Reuters
At least one-quarter of US economy idled by shutdown: WSJ
Emerging economies face challenges as default risk rises: FT
Bankrupt hospitals are back in demand during coronavirus crisis: WSJ
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson Admitted to Hospital for Coronavirus: Slate
Opec meeting re: production cut delayed amid oversupplied oil market: NY Times
Oil could fall to single digits without a deal out output cut: CNBC
German factory orders dropped in Feb–before coronavirus blowback: Reuters
US payrolls tumbled 701,000 in March: CNBC
Bloomberg’s recession tracker: Global downturn started in March: Bloomberg

Reported cases of Covid-19 infections on a global basis continue to exceed the median forecast, based on CapitalSpectator.com’s 8-model combination estimate (see note below). That’s a clue that a peak on a worldwide basis remains elusive for the immediate future. By contrast, new cases that fall below the median forecast on a continual basis will strengthen expectations for assuming that a durable apex is near or has already started. Alas, we don’t appear to be at that turning point yet for the global numbers.

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● Short Selling for the Long Term: How a Combination of Short and Long Positions Leads to Investing Success
By Joseph Parnes
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Short Selling for the Long Term describes the methods used by Joseph Parnes, President of Technomart, to obtain consistent returns in the stock market. Most investors fail to exceed the returns represented by the Standard and Poor’s Stock Index, but Parnes often does using his investment philosophy. This book outlines his method of stock assessment, providing an understandable formula. If the formula tells a reader to buy a stock, then, as explained, there is a significant chance that stock will go up. If the formula tells a reader to short a stock, then the book shows how there is a significant chance that the stock will go down.
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In a previous post, I simulated S&P 500 drawdowns for perspective on what the current market correction may dispense in the weeks and months ahead. Let’s supplement that analysis by visually comparing the current and ongoing peak-to-market decline with the ten deepest drawdowns since 1950.

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Today’s US jobs report for March expected to show start of record collapse: WSJ
Americans urged to wear masks to combat coronavirus: Reuters
Eurozone PMI survey data for March points to largest GDP drop on record: Markit
Caixin China Composite Output Index posts 2nd lowest reading on record: Markit
US jobless rate probably at 13%–highest since Great Depression: NY Times
US jobless claims continued a record surge last last week: CNBC

The expected risk premium fell below 4% for the Global Market Index (GMI) in the wake of market turmoil unleashed by the global spread of the coronavirus. The index’s long-term annual return projection over the “risk-free” rate is now 3.8% annualized, down from last month’s 4.5% estimate and the 4.7% forecast from a year ago.
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Potential COVID-19 vaccine testing “on track” but still 12-18 months away: CNBC
2017 tax overhaul may be revisited as gov’t considers more stimulus: BBG
Trump expects Russia-Saudi oil deal to help ‘ravaged’ industry: Reuters
Factory output contracted in US and around the world in March: WSJ
US auto sales fell sharply in March due to coronavirus: CNN
Prepare for another ugly update on US jobless claims today: CNBC
Brazil’s President Bolsonaro remains defiant in dismissing Covid-19: NY Times
US gun sales surged in March as coronavirus spread: NY Times
Global manufacturing downturn continued in March: IHS Markit
US private employment fell in March–first decline in nearly 3 years: ADP

The value of cash as an asset class had its moment in the sun in March as coronavirus blowback cut deeply into markets around the world. Posting the only gain among the major asset classes in last month’s tsunami of losses, the S&P US T-Bill 0-3 Month Index exemplified its role as a port in the storm with a 0.2% gain. Par for the course for cash returns of late, but oh-so-welcome in an otherwise miserable month for risk assets.
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White House issues stark prediction for US coronavirus outlook: CNBC
Fed rolls out new lending program for foreign central banks: WSJ
CDC considers broader use of masks to contain spread of coronavirus: NY Times
Eurozone manufacturing contracted sharply in March: IHS Markit
UK manufacturing in March fell at quickest rate since 2012: IHS Markit
Companies sold a record amount of debt in Q1: Bloomberg
US Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in March: AP
Chicago PMI remains below neutral mark for ninth straight month in March: MW
US crude oil benchmark trading near 18-year low: