The US election is over (or nearly over), but there’s no sign yet that the end is near for the leadership of growth and momentum risk factors in the US equity market.
Monthly Archives: November 2020
Macro Briefing: 5 November 2020
Biden edges closer to winning Electoral College vote: Reuters
Trump campaign challenges vote count in key states with lawsuits: BBC
New US coronavirus rise to record 103,000 for Nov. 4: MW
Senate Leader McConnell calls for new economic relief bill: WSJ
Wall Street embraces the prospect of divided government: NYT
UK economy at risk of new recession due to coronavirus and Brexit: CNN
Global growth rebounded to fastest pace in over 2 years in October: IHSM
US Composite PMI, a GDP proxy, rose at highest rate in 29 months in Oct: IHSM
US Services PMI ticked lower in Oct but continues to post moderate growth: ISM
US private employment growth slowed in October, ADP data shows: BBG
Now We Know: Trump’s 2016 Win Was No Fluke
The outcome of the US presidential election remains unclear the morning after the Nov. 3 election, but the results so far have cleared up one misconception: Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 wasn’t a quirky outlier. Regardless of who wins the White House in the hours (or days) ahead, it’s obvious in the numbers posted so far that nearly half of voters who cast ballots prefer Trump.
Macro Briefing: 4 November 2020
US presidential election still too close to call the morning after: AP
Still-evolving results in 3 key states will determine next president: Politico
Biden’s ‘Blue Wall’ path to presidency looks shaky at best: NYT
Biden campaign prepared to fight Trump in court: AP
A concession by one side or the other may end up as the only solution: NYT
Republicans appear to hold on to control of US Senate: Reuters
China blocks $34 billion IPO of Ant Group: WSJ
US officially leaves the Paris climate agreement: BBC
US factory orders rose strongly in September: Reuters
Biden has slight lead in Electoral College but final results may take days: NYT
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 3 November 2020
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged down to an annualized 4.7% in October, modestly below the previous month’s estimate. The projection is a long-run forecast for performance over the “risk-free” rate, according to a risk-based model (details below).
Macro Briefing: 3 November 2020
Biden favored in election modeling as US begins voting: FiveThirtyEight
One outlier pollster predicts a clear Trump victory: NYT
Portfolio changes based on election results are risky: CNBC
Economists don’t expect Fed to increase asset purchases through 2021: BBG
US Treasury cuts estimates for borrowing through end of 2020: WSJ
US construction spending rose less than expected in Sep: Reuters
Global manufacturing output rose at 2-1/2 year high in October: IHSM
China Mfg PMI rises in Oct to highest level since 2011: IHSM
Eurozone manufacturing output continued to strengthen in October: IHSM
US Mfg PMI rose in Oct to highest level since Jan 2019: IHSM
US ISM Mfg Index: manufacturing posted strong pickup in growth in Oct: ISM
Major Asset Classes | October 2020 | Performance Review
Global markets were mixed in October, with performances led by stocks and bonds in emerging markets, along with broadly defined commodities. The biggest losers for the major asset classes: shares in the US and developed markets and real estate shares around the world.
Macro Briefing: 2 November 2020
Trump says he’ll consider firing Dr. Anthony Fauci: AP
Big week ahead for US election results and economic data: BBG
Take election forecasting models with a grain of salt: NYT
China Mfg PMI in Oct ‘hits highest level since January 2011’: IHSM
Eurozone PMI survey data for Oct show mfg ‘continues to strengthen’: IHSM
UK mfg upturn continued at slower pace in Oct: IHSM
Chicago PMI dipped in Oct but continues to indicate growth: CPMI
US consumer sentiment index ticked up in October: UoM
US consumer spending rose in September–fifth straight increase: MW
Election Forecasts (Still) Favor Biden, But…
It’s not over till it’s over, but several forecasts and polls on CapitalSpectator.com’s short list continue to favor Democrat Joe Biden as the winner of presidential contest on Nov. 3. Here’s a quick recap of the numbers as the countdown to Tuesday’s results goes into the final hours.