Election Forecasts (Still) Favor Biden, But…

It’s not over till it’s over, but several forecasts and polls on CapitalSpectator.com’s short list continue to favor Democrat Joe Biden as the winner of presidential contest on Nov. 3. Here’s a quick recap of the numbers as the countdown to Tuesday’s results goes into the final hours.

Let’s start with RealClearPolitics.com’s average national polling data. The current profile continues to show Biden with a sizable lead over Donald Trump by roughly seven percentage points.

The only result that matters, of course, is determined by the Electoral College. On that basis, RealClearPolitics.com’s estimate is less decisive but still leaning toward Biden via 216 relatively secure votes (vs. 270 needed to win):

Modeling developed by The Economist, by contrast, reflects a decisive edge for Biden in the Electoral College: 350 to Trump’s 188.

Modeling produced by Fivethirtyeight.com also sees a clear advantage for Biden: 348 to 190, based on the latest run of projections.

The Princeton Elections Consortium is projecting a convincing Biden win, too, with a projected 353 votes.

Despite these estimates, some analysts warn that there’s more uncertainty lurking than most models suggest. On this front, some pollsters say that most estimates don’t accurately capture the breadth of Trump’s support. For example, the Trafalgar Group, which says it specializes in polling “shy” Trump voters, predicts a much closer race than most polls and models indicate. Consider that in Pennsylvania, a key swing state, RealClearPolitics.com’s average poll shows Biden with a four-percentage-point lead. But the Trafalgar Group finds the race in the Keystone State at a virtual dead heat.

It’s (still) not over till it’s over.