The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade below its recent peak. Yesterday’s softer-than-expected rise in consumer inflation for July supports a case for expecting the 10-year rate to stay below 3% for the near term. A similar analysis can be made based on today’s update of CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value ensemble model for this benchmark yield.
* More rate hikes needed despite slowing inflation, say Fed officials
* Traders downgrade expectations for a 75-basis-points rate hike in September
* Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model raises Q3 nowcast to solid +2.5%
* US average gasoline prices below $4 a gallon for first time in months
* Ford CEO doesn’t see lower costs for electric vehicle batteries on horizon
* Hot inflation could boost Social Security payments by $1700 on average in 2023
* July data for US consumer price data suggests inflation may have peaked: