* Fed Governor Bowman says more rate hikes are “likely” to tame inflation
* JPMorgan abandons US recession forecast despite “very elevated” risks
* Saudi Arabian oil giant Aramco reports big drop in profits due to lower oil prices
* US payrolls rose less than forecast in July
* US scientists repeat net energy gain with nuclear fusion test
* Trucking firm Yellow files for bankruptcy after shutting down business
* China’s local government financing vehicles showing more signs of stress
* US stock market is fairly valued, estimates Morningstar:
Monthly Archives: August 2023
Book Bits: 5 August 2023
● How to Make a Killing: Blood, Death and Dollars in American Medicine
Tom Mueller
Review via Kirkus Reviews
A dispiriting look at the replacement of the Hippocratic oath by a PIN number that centers on the big business of kidney dialysis. Basing his account on interviews with hundreds of constituents of the “dialysis community,” journalist Mueller, author of Extra Virginity and Crisis of Conscience, describes a health care industry that is seemingly entirely focused on profit. Most dialysis takes place at clinics where a premium is placed on getting patients in and out quickly, with the withdrawal and reinsertion of blood occurring more rapidly than the body can comfortably accommodate—even though in many instances, “when administered this way, dialysis may shorten patients’ lives by stripping off bodily fluids too fast, triggering sudden drops in blood pressure that can damage the heart, brain, gut, and lungs and lead to stroke, congestive heart failure, and cardiac arrest.” If you complain, you’re likely to be denied care—and, worse, far too many nephrologists are disinclined to fight on behalf of their patients. One nephrologist recounts that a colleague told her he had developed “techniques for goading undesirable patients into acting out, in order to eject them from his facility.”
First Line Of Defense For Assessing Investment Strategy Backtests
There are three basic ways to test an investment strategy. Each has its own unique set of pros and cons, but only one is practical.
Macro Briefing: 4 August 2023
* Global economic growth eases in July to slowest pace since January
* Saudi Arabia will extend oil production cuts into September
* ISM Services Index eases in July, indicator modest growth for sector
* US jobless claims tick up but remain near lowest levels of 2023
* US factory orders surge in June, rising for fourth straight month:
Distributions Help Lift Most Slices Of US Bond Market In 2023
Interest rates continue climbing this year, but that hasn’t stopped bonds from rallying in 2023 when measured in total-return terms. The main exception: long-dated US Treasuries. Otherwise, the various slices of US fixed-income markets are posting year-to-date gains through Wednesday’s close (Aug. 2), based on a set of ETFs after adding distributions to price changes.
Macro Briefing: 3 August 2023
* Will US debt downgrade change Washington’s spending habits? Don’t count on it
* Treasury Sec. Yellen says US credit downgrade “puzzling” and “unwarranted”
* China service sector activity continues to “rise solidly” in July via PMI survey data
* Eurozone economy shrinks in July, falling to 8-month low, PMI survey data show
* Foreign buyers cut US home purchases to lowest level in 14 years
* US private-sector hiring slows in July but level remains strong via ADP data:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 August 2023
The gap narrowed in July between the expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI) and its trailing 10-year realized performance. Today’s revised long-run forecast for GMI, a global, multi-asset-class benchmark, ticked up to an annualized 6.5% from last month’s estimate while its trailing 10-year return edged down to 6.7%. The forecast is based on the average estimate for three models (defined below).
Macro Briefing: 2 August 2023
* US credit rating downgraded to AA+ from AAA by Fitch Ratings
* Global manufacturing downturn continues in July at faster pace
* Resilient US economy suggests US stocks can still run higher, strategist advises
* Job openings in US ease to 2-year low in June
* US construction spending rose sharply in June
* US ISM Manufacturing Index continues to indicate sector’s in recession:
Major Asset Classes | July 2023 | Performance Review
Most of the major asset classes continued to rally in July, led by a surge in commodities, based on a set of ETFs. US bonds, by contrast, remained the outlier, posting a third straight monthly loss.
Macro Briefing: 1 August 2023
* Bidenomics seems to be working for the US economy
* Do lackluster earnings projections threaten stock market’s rally?
* America’s first new nuclear reactor in decades becomes operational
* China’s manufacturing sector contracted in July, rippling across Asia’s factories
* China’s new metals export controls will reverberate in global chip industry
* Prices charged for eurozone goods fall at quickest pace since 2009
* Chicago PMI up less than expected in July, continues to indicate contraction
* Texas manufacturing activity continues to contract in July
* US banks expect to tighten loan standards in second half of 2023




