The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, pushing ever higher above above CapitalSpectator.com’s “fair-value” estimate, which is based on averaging three models. The trend highlights the limitations of models, at least in the short, for estimating near-term changes in bond yields. But reviewing the recent divergence reminds that the current spread, although extreme by the standards of recent years, isn’t unprecedented.
Daily Archives: October 17, 2023
Macro Briefing: 17 October 2023
* Biden will visit Israel in bid to keep conflict from escalating
* Early data suggest the earnings recession is over for S&P 500 companies
* Higher-for-longer interest-rate outlook strengthens
* China Q3 economic data expected to show growth below target
* US holiday spending expected to rebound to pre-pandemic levels
* SEC chief warns AI-linked financial crisis is a threat in years ahead
* NY Fed Manufacturing Index edges down into contraction in October
* US oil production rises to record high in first week of October:
