Monthly Archives: April 2024

US Recession Warning Via States Economies Was A False Alarm

The value of modeling recession risk based multiple indicators is a hardy perennial. The latest example comes by way of aggregating trends in the 50 US state economies for estimating the odds that a NBER-defined downturn has started or is imminent. As recently as February this indicator looked ominous. But as the latest updates show, the warning turned out to be noise.

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Macro Briefing: 30 April 2024

* Fed expected to show discipline in keeping rates higher for longer
* No rate cuts for US till 2025, predict economists at Macquarie
* Wall Street’s home-buying binge comes under scrutiny of lawmakers
* Is US federal borrowing a key factor that’s keeping inflation high?
* Is China’s stockpiling of commodities a prelude to economic ‘nuclear option’?
* Copper rises to 2-year high on soaring demand for green energy transition:

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Book Bits: 27 April 2024

The Algebra of Wealth: A Simple Formula for Financial Security
Scott Galloway
Q&A with author via New York magazine
Q: Over the last ten years or so, you had the idea of crypto democratizing finance. Now you have AI democratizing talent, like there’s this hack around wealth and around work.
A: I don’t want to call them get-rich-quick schemes — but the number of people who have made money by buying crypto or buying Nvidia when it was a $10 (now it’s at $800) is small. Even among those few who have managed to do so, a lot give most of it back because they fall under the illusion of thinking it was about skill rather than luck. They double down and start making bigger bets on even riskier assets. The market reminds them in a fairly ugly way that they actually aren’t good. They just got very lucky. I find over the long term, luck is pretty symmetrical. There are people who have made a lot of money in meme stocks; most of them gave it all back because they started conflating luck with talent.

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Is The Hot Inflation Data In Q1 Noise Or Signal?

Yesterday’s first-quarter GDP report delivered a one-two punch for markets: slower-than-expected growth and hotter-than-expected inflation. In reaction, stocks fell and US Treasury yields rose. At first glance, the risk-off response looks reasonable. But a closer look at the GDP numbers still leaves room for debate.

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