Daily Archives: May 24, 2024

Fed Funds Futures Market Starts To Flirt With Rate Hike Possibility

The monetary policy outlook has been uncertain, but primarily in terms of the timing of the first rate cut. But that’s starting to change as Fed funds futures price in the possibility of a rate hike. To be clear, the implied probability for a hike is extremely low: no more than 1%. But the fact that market sentiment is pricing in any chance of a hike marks a shift.

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Macro Briefing: 24 May 2024

* Crude oil drops to lowest price in over 3 months
* China has a bold plan for its housing crisis, but it’s still not enough
* Sales of new US single-family homes fell more than expected in April
* US jobless claims fell again last week, reaffirming low level of layoffs
* Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index weakened in April, but…
* US business activity accelerates in May via PMI survey data:

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