Measuring shifts in uncertainty is a slippery beast, but it’s easier to intuit when big changes unfold vs. the recent past. We’re knee-deep in one of those moments. One of the tell-tale signs: the US stock market is demanding a higher risk premium to compensate for the spike in uncertainty, a.k.a. prices are falling, which translates to a higher expected return for some forward time horizon.
Daily Archives: March 31, 2025
Macro Briefing: 31 March 2025
US core inflation remained “sticky” in February, based on the core PCE index, which is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve. Core PCE ticked up to a 2.8% year-over-year pace, well above the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target. “It looks like a ‘wait-and-see’ Fed still has more waiting to do,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “Today’s higher-than-expected inflation reading wasn’t exceptionally hot, but it isn’t going to speed up the Fed’s timeline for cutting interest rates, especially given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs.”
