International diversification remains a winning strategy for equities so far this year. Rallies in all the primary regions of the world continue to lead US shares, which are still posting a loss year for 2025, based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Apr. 29).
Monthly Archives: April 2025
Macro Briefing: 30 April 2025
US job openings fell in March to the lowest level since September. Openings are still above the pre-pandemic level, but the latest slide extends a decline that’s been unfolding since peaking in March 2022.
US Growth Expected To Slow In Tomorrow’s Q1 GDP Report
US economic activity looks set to post a sharply softer rate of growth in Wednesday’s initial estimate of first-quarter GDP, based on the median nowcast for several estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 29 April 2025
Treasury Secretary Bessent on Monday said Beijing is responsible for reaching a trade agreement with the US. “I believe that it’s up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, and so these 120%, 145% tariffs are unsustainable.”
US Stocks And Real Estate Shares Are Still Losers In 2025
In a turbulent year for financial markets, US equities and real estate investment trusts are still bearing the brunt of the selling so far in 2025, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Apr. 25). By contrast, the rest of the major asset classes are still posting gains year to date.
Macro Briefing: 28 April 2025
US consumer inflation expectations “remain elevated,” according to revised data for this month’s poll published by the Unviersity of Michigan. “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.” The update also shows consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, tumbling 8% from March.
Book Bits: 26 April 2025
● The Tax-Smart Donor: Optimize Your Lifetime Giving Plan
Phil DeMuth
Summary via Amazon
Want to make your charitable giving go further? This groundbreaking guide reveals how to maximize the impact of every dollar you donate through strategic tax planning. Rather than making ad hoc charitable gifts, learn how to develop an intentional lifetime giving strategy that leverages the tax code to your advantage. From simple techniques like bunching donations and giving appreciated stock, to advanced strategies involving charitable trusts and retirement accounts, The Tax-Smart Donor shows you how to be a more effective philanthropist at any income level. Whether you’re making annual gifts to your alma mater or planning a major charitable legacy, this essential resource will help you do more good while keeping more of your hard-earned money away from the IRS.
Research Review | 25 April 2025 | Tariffs
Tariffs, Tokens, and Turmoil: The Market Fallout from Trump’s Policy Uncertainty
David Krause (Marquette University)
April 2025
This paper investigates the financial consequences of economic policy shifts following President Trump’s second inauguration in January 2025. Using empirical data from April 2024 through April 7, 2025, this study assesses asset performance across U.S. equities, cryptocurrencies, gold, and bonds. The administration’s aggressive trade protectionism, ambiguous digital asset directives, and deregulatory approach to artificial intelligence have triggered heightened market volatility, diminished investor confidence, and a rotation toward defensive assets. Indexed returns reveal that traditional safe havens like gold outperformed riskier assets, while the Magnificent Seven equities and cryptocurrencies have experienced sharp post-inauguration drawdowns. The findings highlight the destabilizing role of policy uncertainty in capital markets, raising critical concerns for investors and policymakers regarding the repricing of political risk. This paper concludes that inconsistent economic governance is contributing to systemic fragility and recommends a more coherent regulatory approach to restore investor trust and improve market efficiency.
Macro Briefing: 25 April 2025
US jobless claims edged higher last week, but remain low. New filings for unemployment rose to 222,000 for the week through April 19, reflecting a stable labor market. Despite concerns for the economic outlook fueled by tariffs, this leading indicator for employment has yet to signal a warning for hiring.
Fed Expected To Keep Rates Steady Despite Trump’s Calls For Cuts
President Trump says he doesn’t plan to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but the calls for rate cuts continue. The central bank, however, is expected to leave rates unchanged at the next month’s policy meeting. For the moment, it’s still a battle of the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object.