The “fair value” for the US 10-year Treasury yield edged higher in March vs. the previous month and is now approaching the 4.0% mark – the highest estimate in 16 years. The analysis is based on the average of three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.
Daily Archives: April 11, 2025
Macro Briefing: 11 April 2025
A key technical signal for the US stock market looks set to go risk-off in the days ahead, based on the S&P 500’s 50-day vs. 200-day averages. Short of a strong rally in the immediate future, the so-called death cross may be near, which some traders will view as a bearish signal for the market’s outlook. Although the signal’s history is far from perfect for market timing, it’s widely followed and so a risk-off switch will likely be seen as a new factor tipping the odds in favor of a bear-market forecast.
