Daily Archives: April 3, 2025

Managing Expectations For A Global Trade War

The sweeping policy change for US tariffs announced yesterday by President Trump is a game changer for the global economy. Exactly how trade flows shift, economies pivot and governments around the world react is unclear, but most forecasts point to slower growth, higher inflation and a reduction in global trade. Trump, by contrast, says the tariffs will “quickly” usher in a new era of prosperity for the US.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 3 April 2025

President Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs on Wednesday that threaten to trigger a global trade war as governments around the world say they will respond. The shift in US policy marks the biggest change to global trade in a century. The core change is a universal tariff of 10% on all imports, plus additional tariffs on the “worst offenders.” A notable exception: Russia. A White House official says Russia is “not on this list because sanctions from the Ukraine war have already rendered trade between the two countries as zero.”

Continue reading