The market premium for the US Treasury yield edged lower in June, based on analysis using a “fair value” estimate. But with inflation showing signs of heating up due to tariffs, economic conditions don’t look particularly conducive for an ongoing decline in the market premium for the near term.
Daily Archives: July 16, 2025
Macro Briefing: 16 July 2025
US consumer inflation’s 1-year pace picked up in June. The consumer price index rose 2.7% at the headline level vs. the year-ago level, up from 2.4% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the highest increase since February. Citing tariffs as a factor, “Inflation is going kick into a much higher gear in coming months,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “We are on the leading edge of that now, but it will become clearly evident in the months ahead.” Omair Sharif, founder and president of Inflation Insights, wrote in a note to clients: The higher inflation data “showed that tariffs are beginning to bite.”
