The latest nowcasts for US economic activity continue to point to a moderate downshift for the third quarter, based on the median for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Recession risk remains low, based on today’s update, but growth is still on track to ease substantially relative to the strong gain reported for Q2.
Monthly Archives: August 2025
Macro Briefing: 22 August 2025
US business activity accelerated in August, growing at the fastest rate of the year, according to the Composite PMI Output Index, a survey-based GDP proxy. “A strong flash PMI reading for August adds to signs that US businesses have enjoyed a strong third quarter so far,” says Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Bond Market Awaits Powell’s Speech For Hints on Rate Cuts
The bond market has been in a holding pattern this month, looking for new catalysts for clues on assessing the outlook for interest rate cuts. On one side of the ledger: ongoing concerns that tariffs will raise inflation and convince the Fed to keep policy steady. But with signs of slowing economic growth, the case for trimming rates is building.
Macro Briefing: 22 August 2025
Chipmaker Nvidia’s earnings report next week could be a major factor for market sentiment. “On a relative basis, Nvidia’s earnings is the largest event for the S&P 500 for the next month,” said Stuart Kaiser, an equity strategist at Citi. Nvidia’s share of the S&P 500’s market value has surged in recent years and is currently around 8%.
Homebuilder Stocks Are Rallying. Is The Optimism Premature?
It’s been a rough year for the residential property market, but the tide is turning favorable again, or so the recent rally in homebuilder shares suggest. A closer look, however, reminds that uncertainty about several key factors for real estate remain in flux, including the outlook for mortgage rates and the health of the economy.
Macro Briefing: 20 August 2025
US housing starts rose to a five-month high in July, led by construction of multi-family units. Newly issued permits for housing construction, however, fell to a five-year low, suggesting that the outlook for residential building is still bearish.
Risk Appetite Stays Resilient For Global Strategies
Whether its folly or prescience, markets continue to climb a wall of worry, effectively looking through tariffs and other risk factors that could threaten the bullish trend. But based on several sets of ETFs to measure the risk appetite through Monday’s close (Aug. 18), the broad trend from a global perspective remains positive.
Macro Briefing: 19 August 2025
US home builder sentiment turned lower in August, returning to the lowest level since 2022, according to monthly polling by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). “Affordability continues to be the top challenge for the housing market and buyers are waiting for mortgage rates to drop to move forward,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes.
Hints Of Rising Inflation Complicate Fed’s Next Policy Meeting
Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s annual conference in Jackson, Wyoming, which starts on Thursday (Aug. 21), the topic of inflation will dominate discussions. Although the latest updates on prices were mixed, there are several metrics that raise questions about the wisdom of cutting interest rates at next month’s policy meeting, which has become the consensus view of late.
Macro Briefing: 18 August 2025
US retail sales rose for a second month in July, highlighting consumer resilience. The news eased concerns that consumer spending is vulnerable to tariff-induced inflation. “As long as consumer spending holds up and companies are able to retain workers because of that robust spending, the flywheel can continue to spin, pushing corporate profits and stock prices higher,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said in commentary issued Friday.
