US layoffs surged in October, rising to the highest level in more than 20 years, according to data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “October’s pace of job cutting was much higher than average for the month,” said chief revenue officer for the data firm. “Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes.”
It’s unclear when the government will publish the third-quarter GDP report, but the latest numbers still suggest that moderate growth prevailed.
Hiring at US companies rebounded in October: private sector employment increased by 42,000 jobs, according to the ADP Employment Report. “Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced.”
Bubble talk is back and for obvious reasons. The stock market has been on a tear and valuation has soared. Classic signs of a bubble, right? Maybe, but it’s usually best to proceed cautiously before declaring that the end is near simply someone tells you the jig is up.
Democrats score key electoral wins, including the race for New York City’s mayor, and gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. Democrats took advantage of party-out-of-power tailwinds to also pass new congressional district boundaries in California to boost the party’s electoral odds in the House in 2026. The results of last night’s elections exceeded polling expectations in the New Jersey and Virigina.
The Global Market Index (GMI) remains on track to generate a 7%-plus annualized total return for the long-run outlook, based on data through October. This estimate of future performance has been steady in recent months, remaining unchanged from the previous month, for instance.
Manufacturing activity contracted for an eighth straight month in October, according to the survey-based ISM Manufacturing Index. Meanwhile, prices paid in the sector continue to rise. By contrast, a competing survey, paints a brighter picture, reporting “steady growth” in October via the US PMI Manufacturing Index.
US stocks topped returns for the major asset classes in October, regaining the leadership position for the first time in five months, based on a set of ETFs.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran says another rate cut is needed in December to lower US recession risk. “If you keep policy this tight for a long period of time, then you run the risk that monetary policy itself is inducing a recession,” he told The New York Times on Friday. “I don’t see a reason to run that risk if I’m not concerned about inflation on the upside.” The Fed funds futures market is pricing in a 63% probability for another 1/4-point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Dec. 10.
● The Second Estate: How the Tax Code Made an American Aristocracy
Ray D. Madoff
Review via The Chronicle of Philanthropy
The power imbalance between charities and the wealthy donors and foundations that support them leads to a lot of tongue-biting by the supplicants. And that leaves a relatively small group of people who know how the nonprofit world works and yet are independent enough to speak out about what they see as hard truths.
Ray D. Madoff, author of the new book, The Second Estate: How the Tax Code Made an American Aristocracy, is one of these people. Madoff, a law professor at Boston College Law School, has carved out a side gig as a gadfly to big philanthropy, most significantly in 2020, when she and billionaire John Arnold drafted a legislative proposal designed to spur private foundations and donor-advised funds to give away more money faster.
It didn’t succeed.