Barring another glitch in the federal government’s on-again-off-again operating schedule, the delayed report for the fourth-quarter GDP report is set for release in two weeks (Feb. 20). When the update arrives, it’s on track to report a softer-but-still-resilient expansion for last year’s final quarter, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator.
Monthly Archives: February 2026
Small Cap Stocks Continue To Roar In 2026
Three weeks ago I wondered if the leadership rotation this year toward small- and micro-cap stocks would persist. There have been multiple false dawns in recent years as large caps and growth stocks regained the performance crown after a burst of small-cap strength. The case for arguing this time is different is still shaky, but small-cap strength persists, based on a set of equity risk factor ETFs through yesterday’s close (Feb. 3).
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 3 February 2026
The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady in January at 7%-plus while the benchmark’s trailing 10-year shot higher through last month, rising above 10%. The near-three-percentage-point spread between the high-flying trailing results and the relatively moderate outlook is unusually wide. The gap suggests that investors should manage expectations down for the performance outlook for globally diversified portfolios in the years ahead.
Major Asset Classes | January 2026 | Performance Review
Commodities and foreign stocks led the performance race in January for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETF proxies. Meanwhile, offshore assets, supported by a weak dollar, outperformed their US counterparts by a wide margin.