The Federal Reserve has a deep pool of resources for analyzing the economy to support its mission to adjust monetary policy to match current and expected macro conditions. But sometimes a central bank’s vaunted research machine offers insights no sharper than whatever you’d get from chatting with a guy waiting at the bus stop. The present moment is one of those times, thanks to the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing war in Iraq.
Monthly Archives: March 2026
Commodities Surge, Everything Else Sinks as Iran War Drags On
The pain isn’t equally distributed. It never is, as the fallout from the war in Iran makes clear. Since the attack began on Feb. 28, nearly every major asset class—aside from commodities and cash—has slipped into the red, with losses spreading broadly across global markets through yesterday’s close (Mar. 17).
Prolonged Iran Conflict Starting To Raise Specter of Stagflation
Estimating the timeline for the end game for the war in Iran remains a slippery task. Gaming out the costs, by contrast, is relatively straightforward. Each day the war continues, the outlook turns a bit murkier, and the risk ticks higher for economic harm.
US Q1 GDP Expected To Rebound As Energy Shock Lurks For Q2
Economic output for the first quarter is expected to partially recover from the stall‑speed pace of Q4, but the threat of an energy shock is looming as the war in Iran continues.
Book Bits: 14 March 2026
● The Alibi of Capital: How We Broke the Earth to Steal the Future on the Promise of a Better Tomorrow
Timothy Mitchell
Review via Publishers Weekly
Political theorist Mitchell (Carbon Democracy) offers a paradigm-shifting critique of the logic that underlies the modern economy. Today is “an age in which extraordinary wealth seems to arrive from unfathomable sources,” Mitchell writes, noting that even critics of the current system seem unable to reckon with the vast and concentrated wealth “conjured… out of thin air” by speculative financial markets. To fully reckon with this “mode of acquiring unearned wealth” that is “the defining feature of our contemporary form of life,” Mitchell argues that one must understand what capital actually is. Capital, he asserts, is foremost “a practical means of consuming the future.”
US 10‑Year Treasury Yield Near ‘Fair Value’ at Outset of Iran War
The 10-year Treasury yield was close to its “fair value” estimate in February, based on the average of three models. Before the start of the war in Iran on Feb. 28, the fading market premium in recent months was expected to continue, and perhaps slide to a discount in the near future. The outlook has been upended due to the ongoing military conflict, which is sending shock waves through the world economy.
Commodities Lead Major Asset Classes By Wide Margin This Year
The war in Iran has roiled the outlook for financial markets and the global economy, but commodities are clearly benefiting from the turmoil as prices rise for energy and other raw materials.
The War May End Soon, But the Fed’s Battle Is Only Beginning
Before the attack started on Feb. 28, lingering concerns about inflation had kept the Fed wary of extending last year’s interest rate cuts. Although several measures of pricing pressure had stabilized at lower levels relative to recent history, Fed officials expressed caution about declaring victory in fully taming the price spike that peaked at 9.0% year over year for the Consumer Price Index in June 2022.
Most Equity Risk Factors Still Posting Gains For 2026
The war in Iran is increasingly weighing on global financial markets and economic activity. Reflecting the rising macro risk, the major U.S. equity benchmarks have slipped into negative territory for the year. But a closer look at stocks shows that most equity risk factors continue to enjoy positive returns in 2026, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Mar. 9).
Tehran Defies US as Conflict Escalates and Markets Reel
Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father Ali Khamenei as the country’s supreme leader. The choice sends a signal that the country’s hardliners are still in control of the country and will remain defiant against President Trump’s demand for “unconditional surrender.” With neither side blinking, a quick end to the war, now in its tenth day, still appears elusive.