Author Archives: James Picerno

Macro Briefing: 15 March 2022

* Ukraine-Russia talks fail as war grinds on
* Will Russia avoid first foreign-currency bond default since 1917 revolution?
* Ukraine war disrupts global supply of key parts and raw materials
* Three European leaders to visit Ukraine’s capital in show of support
* China warns of retaliation if hit with western sanctions linked to Russia
* New “stealth” variant of coronavirus spreading around the world
* Covid-19 cases more than double in one day in China as outbreak accelerates
* China reports better-than-expected growth in retail sales and industrial output
* China stocks falls sharply for second day as new covid lockdowns are announced
* US 10yr Treasury yield rises to 2.14%, near a three-year high:

Macro Briefing: 14 March 2022

* Russian missile strikes near Polish/NATO border raise fears of expanding war
* Russia has requested military support from China, according to US officials
* New efforts emerge for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia
* Russian prosecutors warn that leaders of Western companies could be arrested
* US 10yr Treasury yield rises to 2.08% in early Monday trading, highest since 2019
* China battling multiple outbreaks of Covid-19 across cities
* Don’t let the news of the day derail your strategic investing plan
* US consumer sentiment in March falls to 11-year low as inflation rises:

Book Bits: 12 March 2022

Work Pray Code: When Work Becomes Religion in Silicon Valley
Carolyn Chen
Q&A with author via Publishers Weekly
Q: What do you mean when you say work is replacing religion in America?
A: The last 40-50 years have shown a decline in American religious participation and affiliation, and an increase in the number of hours that high-skilled professionals are devoting to work. Fifty years ago, white-collar professionals were looking to fulfill their needs for identity, belonging, meaning, and purpose through organizations outside the workplace, such as their churches, temples, synagogues, or neighborhood associations. These days, work consumes so much of their lives, it’s in work that they find their identity, their belonging, their source of meaning, fulfillment, and purpose in life.

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Macro Briefing: 11 March 2022

* Russia expands its war to western Ukraine
* Treasury Sec. Yellen: another year of ‘very uncomfortably high’ inflation is likely
* Putin considers nationalizing businesses as Russia is disconnected from West
* SEC hints at delisting US-listed Chinese stocks from American exchanges
* China battles biggest coronavirus outbreak in two years
* Economic shockwave from Ukraine war begins to spread in Europe
* Why are many commodities funds underperforming as prices surge?
* US jobless claims rose last week but remain close to multi-decade low
* US consumer inflation continued rising in February, reaching new 40-year high:

US Equity Factor Losses Are Widespread But Vary Widely In 2022

It’s all about beta now — broad stock-market beta, which is deeply negative year to date. Pulling free from that downside force via an equity strategy is challenging. Surprising? Not really. History clearly shows that return correlations within the equities space tend to move close to 1.0 during sharp corrections and bear markets. In line with that track record, the broad sell-off in US stocks so far this year has weighed on an expansive set of ETFs representing various equity factor risks. But the degree of pain varies widely, which suggests that factor diversification, while hardly a silver bullet, is still worthwhile.

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Macro Briefing: 10 March 2022

* Russia and Ukraine meet for talks in Turkey as war rages on
* House passes bill to ban imports of Russian oil to US
* $1.5 trillion federal spending bill to fund US government approved in the House
* CIA director: a frustrated Putin will ‘double down’ and escalate military action
* UK economist sees a risk of high inflation persisting for years
* South Korea’s new president aims for tougher stance on North Korea
* China’s economy may face rising economic risk via fallout from Ukraine war
* Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurs rethink on how to assign country risk
* US job openings slipped in January but remain near record high:

Macro Briefing: 9 March 2022

* Biden announces ban on Russian oil imports to US
* Reducing Ukraine to rubble increasingly appears to be Putin’s endgame
* Saudi, Emirati leaders signal they won’t help lower oil prices
* US recession risk will rise if oil prices continue to surge, analysts predict
* Venezuela releases 2 Americans in possible sign of thaw in relations with US
* US inflation may soon reach 10%, predicts DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach
* US trade deficit reaches new record in January
* China consumer inflation steady as factory-gate prices ease
* Small business sentiment in US continues to fall as inflation weighs on mood
* US Treasury market’s implied inflation forecasts continue to rise sharply: