* Supreme Court to overturn abortion-rights precedent, leaked document shows
* European Union set to propose phased-in ban on Russian oil
* Possibility of Fed mistake in focus ahead of Wednesday’s policy decision
* Is the era of low-cost supply abundance ending?
* Bank of England expected to raise interest rates to 13-year high
* Australia raises interest rates for first time in over a decade
* China’s manufacturing contraction is accelerating via April PMI survey data
* US ISM Mfg Index slips again in April but still indicates moderate growth:

Red ink spilled across nearly every slice of the major asset classes in April. Commodities were the exception, posting a solid gain. Otherwise, losses prevailed, based on a set of ETF proxies.

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* EU energy ministers in crisis talks re: Russia’s energy supplies
* Rumors of Putin’s ill health emerge
* Fed funds futures predicts 1/2-point rate hike at Fed meeting this week
* Three signs that suggest inflation may be peaking
* Inflation has surged, growth has slowed, but experts don’t expect stagflation
* Consumer-staples stocks return to the limelight for jittery investors
* Recession is main concern for institutional investors
* US consumer spending rose for third month in March:

● The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World in the Free Market Era
Gary Gerstle
Review via Financial Times
It’s rare that one can use the term “instant classic” in a book review, but Gary Gerstle’s latest economic history, The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order, warrants the praise.
It puts neoliberalism, defined as a “creed that prizes free trade and the free movement of capital, goods and people,” as well as deregulation and cosmopolitanism, in a 100-year historical context, which is crucial for understanding the politics of the moment, not just in the US but globally. The book also knits together a century of very complicated economic, political, and social trends, which are often siloed but are in fact quite interrelated, creating a new and important narrative about where America has been, and where it may be going.

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The art and science of modeling returns of financial assets is forever unsatisfying because no one model fully captures the true behavior of asset performances. As a result, there comes a point when researchers are forced to pick a poison that appears less wrong than the alternatives.

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* NATO says it’s prepared to support Ukraine for years
* Is it time to position portfolios for recession, Fed failure? Not yet, says UBS
* Eurozone inflation again reaches record high in April
* Stagflation risk rising for Europe as growth slows
* Jobless claims in US remain near 50-year low
* Despite GDP slide in Q1, economists expect rebound in growth for rest of 2022
* US economy contracted 1.4% in first quarter, well below expectations:

US stocks continue to show a downside bias as the S&P 500 Index retests the lows of 2022. Headwinds continue to blow from a familiar mix of threats: blowback from the Ukraine war, elevated inflation, rising interest rates and slowing economic growth. All these risk factors appear set to continue for the near term, which implies that the market will remain on the defense in the foreseeable future.

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* Ukraine war at risk of spilling across borders
* European leaders say Russian gas cutoff is economic ‘blackmail’
* Ukraine will cause ‘largest commodity shock’ since 1970s, World Bank warns
* Economists expect global growth to slow further via new Reuters poll
* Southern California imposes unprecedented water restrictions
* Yen at 20-year low vs. dollar as Bank of Japan stays committed to low rates
* Sweden’s central bank announces sudden policy U-turn and raises rates
* US pending home sales fell in March, marking five straight monthly declines:

Tomorrow’s initial first-quarter estimate of US GDP from the government (scheduled for Thurs., Apr. 28) is expected to reveal a sharp deceleration in growth, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.

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* Russia cuts off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria
* Poland’s gov’t says its energy supplies are secure despite loss of Russian gas
* German consumer sentiment falls to record low in estimate for May
* Deutsche Bank economists raise severity of its US recession forecast
* Fed is now forced to keep raising interest rates, strategist advises
* World Bank expects largest commodity shock since the 1970s
* US home prices rose nearly 20% in year-over-year change through February
* New, single family home sales fell 8.6 percent in March
* US consumer confidence fell in April, based on consumers’ short-term outlook
* US durable goods orders rebounded in March: