Trends are among the most powerful forces in economics and finance, but every trend plants the seeds of its own reversal. If prices rise (fall) enough, the trend reverses. Forecasting these reversals is tricky, mostly because of the complication and chaos unleashed by the feedback loops that infuse markets and economies.

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* Will Russia’s battle for Ukraine’s Donbas region decide the war?
* IMF cuts growth outlook for global economy due to Ukraine war
* China will continue strengthening strategic ties with Russia, says diplomat
* China risks self-inflicted recession with aggressive battle to eradicate Omicron
* Shanghai starts to ease virus controls that shut down China’s biggest city
* Signs of demand destruction for commodities are starting to emerge
* Companies acquired in LBO deals at risk with rising interest rates
* The Fed’s hawkish pivot looks set to cool the housing market
* US housing starts rose more than than forecast in March:

The headwinds of inflation, rising interest rates, slowing economic growth and the Ukraine war continue to roil the stock market, but within the equity space the yield and value factors are relatively safe havens this year, based on a set of ETFs through the close of trading on Apr. 18.

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* Russia launches new military offensive in eastern Ukraine
* US real Treasury yields close to turning positive for first time in two years
* War-driven food insecurity is center stage at global finance meeting
* US equities will grind higher as inflation peaks, predicts analyst
* Investors are wary that China economic support will limit Covid-related damage
* Confidence among US homebuilders falls to seven-month low in April
* Should Fed raise interest rate 3/4 point? Yes, says St. Louis Fed’s Bullard
* US 10-year Treasury yield continues rising, at highest rate since Dec. 2018:

Broadly defined commodities posted the only gain for the major asset classes — again, based on set of proxy ETFs for last week’s shortened holiday trading schedule through Thursday, Apr. 14.

* US recession odds at 35% for next 2 years, Goldman Sachs predicts
* China’s first quarter GDP grew faster than expected
* China’s PMI survey data points to ongoing economic slowdown in April
* Fallout from China’s zero-Covid policy is overlooked risk for global economy
* Ukraine war creates headwinds for emerging-market governments to pay debts
* NFT bubble is beginning to burst, predicts ‘Black Swan’ author
* US consumer sentiment index posts surprising rebound in early April:

● The Case for Long-Term Value Investing: A guide to the data and strategies that drive stock market success
Jim Cullen
Summary via publisher (Harriman House)
Value investing moves in and out of favor, but the data doesn’t lie. It has always worked, and will continue to work — as long as investors apply a value discipline and invest for the long term.
In The Case for Long-Term Value Investing, experienced Wall Street pro Jim Cullen presents the eye-opening data that backs this up, explaining how investors can use the value approach for successful investing today, as well as sharing a wealth of fascinating stories from his time on the Street.

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A Look Under the Hood of Momentum Funds
Ayelen Banegas and Carlo Rosa (Federal Reserve)
February 2022
Momentum investing has surged over the past few years, with assets growing at three times the rate of conventional funds. Using a comprehensive dataset of US equity funds, this paper examines the economic value of momentum funds. Overall, we find that risk-adjusted returns of momentum funds are, on average, negative, and most of the time series variation of those returns is explained by exposure to the market factor. Furthermore, momentum funds do not improve the performance of investors who already invest in Fama-French factors.

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* US Secretary of State says UKraine war could last through 2022
* Strategists question bets that Fed will raise target rate to 3%
* China holds military drills around Taiwan as US lawmakers visit
* America’s most popular mortgage rate at 5%–highest in over a decade
* China’s new Covid lockdowns are a risk for global inflation, strategists predict
* Europe’s relationship with China is becoming increasingly tense
* Crypto bosses say regulation for industry turning in their favor
* US consumer sentiment posts surprising rebound in April to 3-month high
* Jobless claims in US rose last week but remain near 50-year low
* US retail sales rose 0.5% in March as inflation continued to sizzle:

Not all recession forecasts are created equal. Meanwhile, US recession forecasts are everywhere. From the lips of famous economists to casual observers of the macro scene, warnings of economic contraction are sprouting like primrose and tulips. The challenge is that the projections don’t come with warning labels, making it difficult to interpret the validity, relevance and timeliness of the forecasts on a case-by-case basis.

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