Next month’s preliminary estimate of US economic activity for the second quarter remains on track to deliver another round of accelerated growth, based on a set of recent nowcasts.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Macro Briefing: 24 June 2021
* Agreement on infrastructure bill taking shape between White House and Senate
* House committee approves legislation to limit market dominance of Big Tech
* White House replaces director at Federal Housing Finance Agency
* Tense encounter between British warship and Russian forces in in Black Sea
* German business sentiment rises in June to highest level since November 2018
* US economic growth slowed in June but remains strong via PMI survey data
* New US home sales fell in May to 11-month low as prices soared:
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 23 June 2021
The Treasury market continues to price in rising expectations that the recent inflation surge is temporary. No one knows if this implied forecast will prove correct, but for the moment the moderate slide in 10- and 30-year Treasury yields reflects a crowd that’s inclined to take an ever-more skeptical view of the reflation trade, if only on the margins.
Energy Sector Continues To Lead US Stocks By Wide Margin In 2021
Shares in the conventional energy sector may be destined for dinosaur status as the shift to renewables marches inexorably on, but that hasn’t stopped Big Oil from leading US equity sectors this year.
Macro Briefing: 23 June 2021
* Will Delta variant be the source of next Covid-19 wave in US?
* Fed chairman downplays inflation risk in congressional testimony
* NY Fed president says rate hike is “still way off in the future”
* China condemns latest US warship transit through Strait of Taiwan
* US births tumbled after pandemic started
* Eurozone economy grows at fastest rate for 15 years in June via survey data
* UK growth remains strong in June as employment gain hits record high
* Japan’s economic contraction continues in June via PMI survey data
* Mid-Atlantic manufacturing activity strengthens in June
* Existing home prices in US post highest year-on-year increase on record while…
* US existing home sales fell for fourth straight month in May:
Will The Fed Keep Inflation Contained?
Inflation has surged recently, raising concern that the US economy faces its biggest threat to pricing stability since the 1970s. The counterargument: inflation is transitory and the recent runup in prices will fade as production bottlenecks linked to the economy’s reopening fade. Even if inflation turns out to be more persistent than some forecasters expect, the Federal Reserve will step in and nip the problem in the bud.
Macro Briefing: 22 June 2021
* European Union launches antitrust probe into Google’s advertising unit
* Fading gov’t stimulus spending will bring a temporary economic headwind
* No policy change needed for US, at least for now, says NY Fed president
* Is inflation risk starting to recede?
* Bitcoin remains under pressure as China escalates crackdown on cryptocurrency
* Bridgewater’s Dalio: Fed rate hikes will have ‘big, negative effect’ on markets
* Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity confirms US economic growth accelerated in May:
Widespread Losses Weighed On Global Markets Last Week
US investment-grade bonds were the exception. Otherwise, the major asset classes felt the sting of risk-off sentiment in the wake of what is widely perceived as a subtle-but-otherwise-conspicuous hawkish tilt in the Federal Reserve’s outlook on inflation risk.
Macro Briefing: 21 June 2021
* Israel’s prime minister warns US to “wake up” before rejoining Iran nuclear deal
* US preparing more sanctions on Russia, says Nat’l Sec. Adviser Jake Sullivan
* Heat wave scorches large swaths of the US West
* US expected to be top destination for foreign investment
* Supply constraints appear set to continue into 2022
* Are stocks vulnerable to a inflation-triggered regime change at the Fed?
* American airlines cancels hundreds of flights due to staffing, maintenance issues
* Bitcoin falls as China intensifies crackdown on cryptocurrency mining
* Yield on US long Treasury bond under pressure amid rethink on reinflation:
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 20 June 2021
The broad-based declines in global markets last week pinched our three proprietary strategies in line with the benchmark, Global Beta 16 (G.B16).