Author Archives: James Picerno

Is The US Dollar At Risk Of Losing Reserve Currency Status?

Dollar weakness is a topical subject this year, inspiring new forecasts that the currency is in danger of losing its reserve currency status. Advocates of this outlook point to various clues that suggest the end is near. But a careful review of the likely replacements suggest that the greenback will retain is central role in world trade for years to come.

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Macro Briefing: 4 June 2021

* Biden signals willingness to negotiate with GOP on infrastructure package
* NY Fed president says it’s too early to reduce stimulus
* Is the US economy at risk of overheating?
* Global growth continued to accelerate in May via PMI survey data
* US economic growth strengthened in May via Composite PMI data
* US jobless claims fell below 400k for first time during pandemic
* US ISM Services PMI continues to indicate strong sector growth in May
* US private employment growth accelerated in May to 7-month high:

Macro Briefing: 3 June 2021

* Israel opposition parties strike deal to oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
* Global employment recovery to prepandemic level will take years
* Congress considering new policies to ease labor shortage
* Fed to begin winding down program that bought corporate assets
* A United Nations gauge of world food costs rose for 12th straight month in May
* Will oil prices continue rising this summer?
* China growth eased in May via Composite PMI, a survey-based GDP proxy
* Economy growing at moderate pace, Fed’s Beige Book reports
* CRB Commodity Index closes at 6-year high:

Macro Briefing: 2 June 2021

* First human case of H10N3 bird flu reported in China
* World’s largest meat supplier is latest victim of ransomware attack
* OPEC+ oil producers agree to stick to gradually ease supply curbs
* Biden suspends oil drilling in Alaska’s Arctic refuge
* Malaysia charges China breached airspace over South China Sea.
* Will Friday’s jobs report upend Biden’s economic agenda?
* Has the bet on inflation peaked?
* US manufacturing activity strengthened in May via ISM Mfg. Index
* US construction spending rose less than expected in April
* Global manufacturing activity rose to highest level in 11 years in May:

Macro Briefing: 1 June 2021

* Will this week’s jobs report for May change the Fed’s stance on monetary policy?
* The perfect storm for a shortage in everything around the world
* China’s manufacturing sector grew at slightly slower pace in May
* Eurozone manufacturing activity reached new highs in May
* US crude futures rise to 2-1/2 year high
* Key measure of US inflation increased faster than expected in April
* US consumer spending rose 0.5% in April, extending March’s surge
* Probability of expected US PCE inflation above 2.5% rose to 84% in May: