The record decline in US output in the second quarter is expected to post a strong but partial recovery in the upcoming Q3 GDP report, according to several recent nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.

Continue reading →

Trump admits to downplaying coronavirus risk: USAT
US official claims pressure to downplay Russian election interference: BBC
EU faces challenge of stronger euro as economy struggles to recover: BBG
EU and UK to hold emergency talks on UK plan to undercut Brexit: Reuters
World wildlife remains in “catastrophic decline,” report warns: BBC
China’s auto sales rose 6% in August vs. year-earlier level: BC
Record 2.5 million acres burning across the West: NYT
US job openings continued to rebound in July: Reuters

It was risk-off late last week, but today’s bounce in US stocks has the bulls cheering once more. The S&P 500 closed up 2.0% on Wed., Sep. 9. Although the gain was well below the high point of the day, it was strong enough to inspire forecasts that last week’s slide was one more temporary detour on the road to ever higher prices.

continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist

Last week I briefly reviewed the case for casting a wary eye on expecting the standard stock-bond asset allocation to fulfill its historical role as a risk-management tool. Let’s extend this thought experiment by comparing results for possible bond replacements in the classic 60/40 stock/bond portfolio.

Continue reading →

AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine study put on hold due to adverse reaction: STAT
Wildfires burning across three Western states: CNN
Trump to announce further reduction in US troops in Iraq: Reuters
Tensions rise on India-China border as shots are fired: NYT
US companies in China expect bilateral tensions will last for years: Reuters
China’s consumer inflation eased to moderate 2.4% annual pace in Aug: SCMP
Oil prices fall sharply on rising supply and falling demand: CNN
Consumer credit in July rose for a second month: BBG
US small business sentiment edges up in Aug — above 46-year avg: NFIB
10-year US Treasury yield: Going nowhere fast:

The US trading week begins with a fresh dose of red ink hanging over the major asset classes from last week’s sell-off. With the exception of foreign corporate bonds and investment-grade fixed-income in the US, all flavors of global markets lost ground last week (through Sep. 4), based on a set of proxy ETFs.

Continue reading →

Trump says he plans to sharply reduce US-China economic ties: BBG
US states facing deep fiscal crisis: NYT
California wildfires create new electricity blackouts: AP
China’s exports continued to rebound in August: CNBC
Last two Australian reporters in China are flown out of country: BBC
The once-solid Exxon dividend is suddenly in doubt: Reuters
US payrolls continued to recover in Aug but losses still deep for some sectors: FTE

“Without labor nothing prospers.”
– Sophocles

● Too Much Information: Understanding What You Don’t Want to Know
Cass R. Sunstein
Summary via publisher (MIT Press)
How much information is too much? Do we need to know how many calories are in the giant vat of popcorn that we bought on our way into the movie theater? Do we want to know if we are genetically predisposed to a certain disease? Can we do anything useful with next week’s weather forecast for Paris if we are not in Paris? In Too Much Information, Cass Sunstein examines the effects of information on our lives. Policymakers emphasize “the right to know,” but Sunstein takes a different perspective, arguing that the focus should be on human well-being and what information contributes to it. Government should require companies, employers, hospitals, and others to disclose information not because of a general “right to know” but when the information in question would significantly improve people’s lives.

Continue reading →

It had to end eventually. Or is this just one more pause in an ongoing bull market? If only we knew.

continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist