Negotiations in Congress continue for coronavirus-stimulus bill: WSJ
US posts record number of Covid-19 hospitalizations: BBC
Americans face ‘rough’ winter due to surging coronavirus, CDC chief warns: RTRS
House passes bill that may delist Chinese firms from US stock exchanges: CNBC
China services sector growth accelerated in November: RTRS
Eurozone economic activity contracted in Nov, PMI survey data shows: IHSM
UK economic activity contracted in Nov via PMI survey data: BBG
Survey: economic fear rises sharply among Republicans after election: NYT
Fed Beige Book: US economic rebound gathered momentum recently: WSJ
US companies hired fewer workers than expected in November: BBG
Author Archives: James Picerno
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 December 2020
The expected risk premium estimate rose for The Global Market Index (GMI), increasing to an annualized 5.3% in today’s revision. That’s a relatively sizable jump relative to last month’s forecast. The estimate represents a long-run projection for the index’s performance over the “risk-free” rate via a risk-based model (details below).
Macro Briefing: 2 December 2020
UK approves Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine: CNBC
Trump may veto defense bill over social media protections: AP
Biden says he won’t immediately remove Trump’s tariffs on China: CNBC
Biden’s economic team recommends quick action on stimulus: NYT
Global manufacturing increased in Nov at fastest pace since Jan 2018: IHSM
10-year Treasury yield rises sharply, near 1%: BBG
German retail spending rose more than expected in October: RTRS
US construction spending rebounded in October: MW
US Mfg PMI signaled continued acceleration in growth: IHSM
US ISM Mfg Index: sector growth slowed in November: RTRS
Major Asset Classes | November 2020 | Performance Review
November was unusually kind to risk assets, delivering another clean sweep of gains. For a third month this year, all the major asset classes rallied. From the smallest of fractional increases in cash (a gain of one basis point) up to the dramatic 15%-plus rally in stocks in foreign developed markets, a bullish wave lifted all boats last month — again, following across-the-board increases in May and July.
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Macro Briefing: 1 December 2020
Moderna requests approval for its Covid-19 vaccine: WSJ
Biden chooses liberal-minded economic team: AP
Fed Chairman Powell: economic outlook ‘extraordinarily uncertain’: CNBC
China’s Nov mfg activity rose to highest level in a decade: IHSM
Eurozone Mfg PMI held on to moderate gain in Nov: IHSM
UK mfg survey data show sector activity strengthened in Nov: IHSM
Exxon Mobil will sharply cut exploration and production spending: NYT
Chicago PMI: business conditions slowed in Nov: MW
Dallas Fed Mfg Index: sector growth slowed sharply in Nov: MSTAR
US pending home sales fell for a second month in Oct: BBG
US Stocks Led Broad-Based Global Rally Last Week
American equities posted the highest return for the major asset classes for the trading week, based on a set of exchange traded funds through Friday’s close (Nov. 27). The broad-based rally lifted nearly every corner of global markets. The only exception: US investment-grade bonds.
Macro Briefing: 30 November 2020
Trump reportedly will add China’s SMIC and CNOOC to defense blacklist: RTRS
Fauci warns of ‘surge upon a surge’ for Covid-19: NPR
Biden expected to announce economic team this week: NYT
Biden fractures foot while playing with his dog: AP
Congress faces deadlines on gov’t spending and stimulus: BBG
China Mfg PMI shows growth for 9th straight month in Nov: CNBC
Will Senate Republicans block Biden’s judicial nominations? PLTC
OPEC+ considers extending cuts to oil production: RTRS
German 10-year bond yield slips to 3-week low, near -0.6%: RTRS
Financial data consolidation: S&P Global near deal to acquire IHS Markit: WSJ
This week’s US payrolls report for November on track for another gain: BBG
US Treasury yield curve continues to reflect a steepening bias:
Book Bits: 28 November 2020
● The Money Plot: A History of Currency’s Power to Enchant, Control, and Manipulate
Frederick Kaufman
Summary via publisher (Other Press)
Half fable, half manifesto, this brilliant new take on the ancient concept of cash lays bare its unparalleled capacity to empower and enthrall us.
Frederick Kaufman tackles the complex history of money, beginning with the earliest myths and wrapping up with Wall Street’s byzantine present-day doings. Along the way, he exposes a set of allegorical plots, stock characters, and stereotypical metaphors that have long been linked with money and commercial culture, from Melanesian trading rituals to the dogma of Medieval churchmen faced with global commerce, the rationales of Mercantilism and colonial expansion, and the U.S. dollar’s 1971 unpinning from gold.
Research Review | 27 November 2020 | Inflation
The Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment in an MMT World
Emilio Carnevali (Northumbria U.) and Matteo Deleidi (Roma Tre U.)
October 2020
This paper is focused on Modern Monetary Theory’s (MMT) treatment of inflation from an open economy perspective. It analyzes how the inflation process is explained within the MMT framework and provides empirical evidence in support of this vision. However, it also makes use of a stock-flow consistent (open economy) model to underline some limits of the theory when it is applied in the context of a non-US (relatively) open economy with a flexible exchange rate regime. The model challenges the contention made by MMTers that measures such as the job guarantee program can achieve full employment without facing an inflation-unemployment trade-off.
Macro Briefing: 27 November 2020
Supreme Court blocks restrictions on religious gathers to fight virus: CNN
Dr. Fauci worries that Covid-19 will soar during the holiday season: USAT
US Covid-19 hospitalizations rise above 90,000 for first time: WSJ
Trump says he’ll leave if Electoral College votes for Biden: CNN
Eurozone economic sentiment drops sharply in November: BBG
Will Black Friday offer lifeline to struggling stores? AP
Has Covid-19 ended the era of Hollywood blockbuster films? BBC
Bitcoin drops sharply after reaching record high: CNBC
Amazon ramps up its global workforce to over 1.2 million: NYT
Disney to lay off 32,000 as virus takes a toll on its theme parks: MW
US jobless claims rose for 2nd week; highest level in five weeks: CNBC




